Gates Aviation

BOEING'S 1000th B777 - EMIRATES' 100th

2012-01-29T10:27:00.002Z

http://t.co/gJZPh4Jh Aviation Week's blog announces that while the 1000th Boeing 777 begins its journey through the production line at Everett, Emirates' 100th 777 is complete and awaiting delivery - two significant success stories in our industry!

A380 WING SPAR BRACKET CRACKS

2012-01-20T13:51:00.002Z

Apparently unexpected stresses caused cracks in the A380 wing spar brackets - didn't the de Havilland Comet 1 have some of those?

COSTA CONCORDIA ACCIDENT

2012-01-18T11:18:00.000Z

In our industry we don't always get the management of accident investigations quite right and standards vary significantly across the globe. However, the frenzy of accusation and finger-pointing (mostly at the beleagured captain) in the wake of the grounding of the Costa Concordia on a tiny island off the Italian coast is almost beyond belief. State officials have already publicly released transcripts and recordings of telephone conversations with Captain Schettino during the abandonment and his employers have openly condemned him. The media of course just love it! It may well be that he messed up and pretty badly too but where is the due process of accident investigation? We at least have ICAO Annexe 13 to guide the conduct of an investigation but I have been too long away from shipping to know whether there is an IMO equivalent (does anyone know?) - if not then it is high time there was.

Going back to the shipping line who employed him, they must surely take some responsibility for their man. They selected him, hired him, trained him and promoted him - if he was intrinsically flawed then how didn't they notice? To step away and brand him as a rogue is to ignore the company's part in putting him in command of their ship.

HIGH LEVEL ICE CRYSTALS

2012-01-09T12:31:00.002Z

The guys at Skybrary do a great job! I wrote about high level ice crystals some time ago when I first learnt about them from Bill Hunt of Boeing in a presentation to the Gulf Flight Safety Committee (www.gfsc.aero). Now for some definitive background on this little understood phenomenon, Skybrary has produced this article in their excellent reference resource http://bit.ly/yryflM

INDIAN DGCA CRITICISES AIRLINE SAFETY

2012-01-09T11:53:00.000Z

The Indian DGCA has published an audit report which claims that all airlines in India are violating safety norms to cut cost - see http://ibnlive.in.com/news/all-airlines-violating-safety-norms-dgca/219182-3.html . However, it has not apparently imposed immediate sanctions on any individual operator. I have not yet seen the full document but the media reports suggest that there are a variety of concerns, many of them linked to the quality and effectiveness of the flight data management (FDM) programmes.

Used well FDM offers an invaluable insight into the behavioural choices made by pilots, while at the same time providing vital operational data to improve efficiency and cut cost. Used badly or without the correct understanding FDM can be worse than useless. Gates Aviation has experience and expertise in the establishment and maintenance of sound and cost-effective FDM programmes, as well as access to the necessary hardware and software to support them. The entire programme can be outsourced to an independent service provider in North America if required. Contact us for further information.

AVIATION INSURANCE CLAIMS FALL

2012-01-05T15:02:00.001Z

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-04/airline-insurance-claims-tumble-45-in-safest-year-ascend-says.html

Excellent news for the aviation insurance sector, which has struggled (and failed) to break even in recent years - claims fell 45% last year reflecting the significant reduction in losses over the previous years, as mentioned in my earlier post. However, the question this raises for all of us must be 'what brought this about?' It is no good patting ourselves on the back for a great year (not so great for 500 who died of course) if we don't know how we did it!

No doubt the continued spread of safety enhancing technologies like EGPWS and TCAS have made a significant contribution but on the other hand we know that technology and the interface with its human operators has been at the heart of some of the most tragic accidents in recent years. Have we done enough to address that issue alone?

Sadly we cannot assume that this sudden fall in losses and insurance claims is a new trend that will somehow continue into 2012. Maybe some fraction of it yes, but a significant proportion is probably little more than providence and there is no room for complacency within the airlines or their insurers. Safety risk management is all about continuous improvement and whatever we did right last year, we need to do it better this year and into the future.

LITHIUM BATTERIES

2012-01-03T12:50:00.001Z

I didn't even know they existed but apparently the pro-lithium battery lobby group is the Rechargeable Battery Association, who have been rubbishing the case for the FAA's latest restrictions on carriage - see http://t.co/JDfkQMAo . I am no expert but the UPS 747 in Dubai made a pretty convincing case to me...

US FATALITIES IN FIGURES

2012-01-03T10:09:00.001Z

A LUCKY ACCIDENT?

2012-01-03T09:54:00.001Z

The Aviation Safety Network (ASN) has just released the airliner accident figures for 2011 at http://aviation-safety.net/database/year.php?year=2011 and although 507 people lost their lives last year, this number is significantly below the 10 year average of 764. I would hesitate to call it a 'good' year when so many have been lost, and we certainly can't take much credit for such a sudden statistical improvement but I hope this is the beginning of a new improving trend in accidents and losses as a result of all our combined efforts at reducing risk in the industry. If not then the 2011 figures are just a lucky accident...

Here's to 2012 from everyone at Gates Aviation - may we be even luckier this year!

DOG DAYS IN INDIA

2011-10-28T09:38:00.002+01:00

Sports sections on the news channels are buzzing with the shocking revelation that a dog ran across the track during practice at the F1 Grand Prix in Delhi. Anyone who has operated aircraft into Indira Ghandi International Delhi, or Chhatrapati Shivaji Bombay, or just about any Indian airport in recent years will know that dogs on the track (runway, taxiway, apron...) are all in a day's work. In this latest case, the funnist headline award goes to the Times of India - 'Dog on Track Gives Rescuers the Slip'. Rescuers? What were they going to do with it once they "rescued" it??? Counselling perhaps.

RUNWAY EXCURSION ACCIDENT – MANGALORE – 22 MAY 2010

2011-10-02T10:13:00.002+01:00

We all recall the tragic accident in India in 2010 in which a 737 overran the runway end at Mangalore and careered down a steep wooded hillside beyond, breaking up and catching fire. 158 people on board lost their lives. The final investigation report http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1680.pdf makes numerous recommendations, many referring to operational procedures and training, but perhaps surprisingly one recommendation refers specifically to training in safety management systems (SMS) for airline managers – see 4.3.15 below. Why? Well SMS is not just a manual and it is not just for the safety department. SMS is an integral business process for which all managers, department heads and executives have a daily responsibility, and perhaps more significantly to the individuals concerned, an implicit accountability.

To fulfil the obligations of this recommendation, which should be heeded by operators worldwide not just those in India, and to help managers understand how SMS works in business, Gates Aviation has developed and successfully delivered a tailored SMS course for senior staff up to CEO level. Recognising that these people have limited time available for training, the intensive course lasts just 4 hours but embraces all of the necessary concepts and processes. To learn more about this, and other high quality SMS training by Gates Aviation, please contact Captain Jo Gillespie at jgillespie@gatesaviation.com .

Extract from Indian Air Ministry Report:
‘ACCIDENT TO 737-800 AIRCRAFT ON 22nd MAY 2010 AT MANGALORE’

4.3.15 Safety Management Training for Executives
In view of rapid growth of aviation in India, both commercial and private, there is a need to ensure that various Executives as well as Post Holders undergo specialised training in Safety Management. This will enhance the necessary awareness amongst senior management, thereby ensuring that requisite importance is given to Flight Safety. In this connection the newly introduced Safety Management System (SMS) by DGCA also needs to be implemented by all.

OFF TOPIC AGAIN

2011-09-27T19:24:00.002+01:00

I sometimes wander off the aviation topic and today is one of those days... In beautiful Indian Summer sunshine this afternoon I walked from my apartment in Fleet, Hampshire to the local railway station, and on the way I observed a sign of the culture in which we live. Conkers... In case you aren't British, a conker is the hard nutty fruit of the horse chestnut tree.

As I walked along the High Street I passed under just such a tree and the pavement was littered with rich, shiny, mahogany coloured conkers - lying there ignored. 40 years ago every self respecting boy and many of the girls in the neighbourhood would have known the precise location of every conker tree and the ground below would be scoured clean several times a day. No matter, children would still gather under these precious resources to throw sticks up into the foliage and dislodge more reluctant prizes.

Now they lie unwanted - a lot has changed... Video games, TV and over zealous health & safety rules in school all have some responsibility.

Oh, and what did we do with them? Tie them on to strings and beat them to pieces. Don't ask me why.

LOVE FROM ACAPULCO

2011-09-19T01:23:00.002+01:00

I may have mentioned that I am in Acapulco to be moderator for the 3rd World Food Programme Global Aviation Safety Conference (GASC) - the show starts tomorrow. Meanwhile, one of the supporting organisations, FlyMex and their subsidiary FLYWET, took it upon themselves to entertain the guest speakers this afternoon. Nothing unusual in that until you find yourself picked up from the beach front hotel in an Agusta 109 and flown across Acapulco Bay at 100 feet to a lagoon to the north of town. After landing on a sand bar we boarded a Seadoo jet boat for a ride around the lagoon and a pelican inhabited island before being dropped at a thatched beach restaurant for lunch and drinks. Then we pottered down the jetty while a float Caravan was literally 'swum' in from its mooring by two 'ground' crew and we hopped in for the flight back to ACA airport(piloted by the owner of FlyMex)and a short ride home to the hotel. All conferences should be like this... I will post some pictures shortly!

EVEN MORE LITHIUM BATTERIES

2011-09-10T10:37:00.003+01:00

I hadn't picked up on this before but apparently the Asiana 747-400F that crashed into the sea off the Korean coast in July was carrying guess what? Lithium batteries... And the crew reported a fire in the hold and control problems prior to the accident. SAA's Helderburg, UPS in Dubai and now this - are we ever going to learn?

http://t.co/NzqeZml

STOP RUDDER INPUTS

2011-09-10T10:22:00.002+01:00

10 years on from the loss of an American Airlines Airbus A300 following vertical fin detachment due to excessive rudder inputs (specifically almost full travel reversal) beyond the ultimate design load, EASA has announced that it will require installation of a new aural warning "stop rudder inputs" on 300-600 and 310 aircraft. It turns out that it was not the actual accident that triggered this action but a 4 year survey of pilots to determine the underlying understanding of rudder use in upset recovery, results of which were published last year. Operators will have 4 years to comply.

This means that for up to 13 years we may continue to operate without any change in the wake of a known technical issue coupled with known pilot training/knowledge deficiencies. For a high tech industry like ours that seems a long time... Surely this was an opportunity to gather huge amounts of deidentified flight data from operators to analyse the frequency and likelihood of excessive rudder inputs. With the technology available couldn't the rudder travel limiter logic be adjusted to take care of the problem rather than adding yet another aural warning?

http://t.co/t1AfpJq

UK CAA FDM PROJECT

2011-09-09T09:36:00.002+01:00

Follow the link to the UK CAA press release announcing a joint industry initiative to develop specific flight data monitoring standards aimed at combating the CAA's 'significant 7' safety risks (see the CAA Safety Plan 2011 from previous posts). The project starts with a focus on runway excursions, a favourite topic of mine and the most frequent accident category in recent years (IATA/FSF data) and will progress through the other six as resources permit.

I have often said that there are only two sources of reliable information on pilot behavioural choices during flight; FDM and LOSA (line oriented safety audit)and both require careful and informed application in order to provide feedback of any value. It is excellent news that the UK's regulator has recognised this and is helping support operators to develop effective programmes.

http://bit.ly/o5Q8IU

THE EXCURSIONS CONTINUE

2011-09-05T10:37:00.002+01:00

With a United Express Embraer skidding off the runway in Ottawa http://t.co/beeV6lU I make that at least 3 runway/taxiway excursions in the last few days. Fortunately no-one has been hurt in this latest rash of incidents - excursions may be the most common accident category but they are frequently survivable - the Turkish A340 RET excursion in Mumbai closed the main runway for days. It seems that in spite of all the runway excursion risk reduction work by FSF, IATA, ICAO and other industry bodies over past few years, we still have a significant issue on our hands...

UK CAA 2011 SAFETY PLAN

2011-08-31T10:49:00.002+01:00

The UK CAA has just published its 2011 Safety Plan at http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/978/CAA_Safety_Plan_2011.pdf, which states 'desired safety outcomes' to reduce the risk of the following (with my comments on each):
Loss of control occurrences - these are a real concern because they are indicative of declining pilot competency and almost always end in total loss
Runway excursions due to unstable approaches - the most frequent accident cause in recent years, although mercifully often survivable; the other big runway excursion issue is rejected take-off after V1
Runway incursions - less frequent than excursions but more likely to end in loss of life, in part a symptom of increasing runway utilisation and airfield congestion
Midair collision due to incorrect TCAS response - at sea they call lifejackets 'useless unless worn', with TCAS it would be 'useless unless followed'. Very few FDM programmes flag incorrect TCAS response but it is a vital indicator
Loading errors - surprisingly frequent and potentially catastrophic but there is little incentive for loaders to report their own errors

I can't argue with any of those desired outcomes!

THE GOLDEN GOOSE?

2011-08-30T09:42:00.002+01:00

I read an article in Saturday's Daily Telegraph which suggested that the UK Government is contemplating increasing Air Passenger Duty (APD) once again. Why? because they weren't making enough money from it as it stands. Well that is hardly surprising, the UK already has one of the highest APDs in the World and both tourists and business people have a choice of destination, while the domestic travelling public have an obvious choice simply whether to travel or not. As an ex-airline employee I am entitled to a few free tickets (standby at the back of the queue but still well worth having) each year and last week my daughter and I flew to Dubai and back from Heathrow. Ticket = free of charge; APD = £332 (admittedly a little was UAE tax).

The Goverenment could take a lesson from business here, and in particular one of the most successful business sectors in the current UK economic climate; the supermarkets. They know that volume and market share count for more than simple margins. There should be something to be learned also from the impending removal of the 50% income tax band... Why? Because it doesn't make any money!

RISK – THE BUSINESS REALITY

2011-08-25T11:08:00.002+01:00

In the simplest of terms the aim for any successful organisation is to satisfy the objectives of its business plan. Risk then is the measure of any condition in the operational or commercial environment with a potential to adversely impact upon the achievement of those objectives. It follows that the identification and mitigation of risks within the system are vital to success. Business leaders, and consequently their people, naturally prefer to focus resources on promoting the positive objectives but at the same time those objectives must be adequately and appropriately protected from risk – this is risk management.

Inevitably the management of risk may sometimes fail, or previously unforeseen risks may manifest themselves unexpectedly and some harm to the business may be unavoidable. When things don’t go according to plan there are two commercial imperatives; firstly to protect and manage ‘business as usual’ and secondly to minimise the operational and commercial impact of adverse outcomes. Achieving both simultaneously and effectively with the resources available requires a well thought out and thoroughly tested response plan - this is emergency response.

If you want sound aviation consultancy and training built around these two simple concepts, contact Gates Aviation on +44 207 4696437 or jgillespie@gatesaviation.com

AIRCRAFT TRACKING

2011-08-01T16:13:00.002+01:00

It is interesting that the latest BEA report on AF447 includes in its additional safety recommendations the automatic triggering of data transmissions whenever an emergency situation is encountered. This is an excellent idea but fraught with complexity.

Would it not be easier to install currently available aircraft satellite tracking systems, already quite common on business jets and special operations aircraft (World Food Programme has mandated them)? A single aircraft unit costs less than US$15,000 and the tracking and data management fee is similarly modest. I think I may have suggested this at the time of the accident... It seems bizarre that the owners, lessors and operators of these expensive machines don't want to know exactly where they are and what they are doing all of the time.

If you would like to know more about these systems, contact Gates Aviation on +44 207 4696437 0r e-mail me on jgillespie@gatesaviation.com

DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'VE GOT 'TIL IT'S GONE

2011-07-21T13:11:00.004+01:00

There could be a song in that... I am easily old enough to remember the first men stepping on to the surface of the moon so I have observed the entire span of manned space flight. Back in 1969 I recall shouting from my bedroom window that men were on the moon as the news arrived (no-one would have heard because we lived in the wilderness); I was that excited by the whole thing. Over time though we got used to the immense technological achievements that have driven spaceflight and apart from the spectacular and tragic accidents I have paid little heed to them.

Today as I watched the shuttle Atlantis land for the last time, no doubt to become a lifeless museum piece somewhere, I was overwhelmed with a feeling of regret that we are apparently turning our backs on one of our most courageous and might I say noble achievements of exploration. As we allow the momentum of the last 50 years to dissipate in this way, it is in the certain knowledge that it will not be the nations of the west who spin it back up again next time.

GENERAL AVIATION CHAOS

2011-07-05T17:26:00.002+01:00

Over the Independence Day weekend in the US I imagine there was a whole lot of flying going on but when I read from the NTSB that they are investigating no fewer than seven fatal general aviation accidents (http://t.co/kZbMWEN) from the holiday period it puts a very different perspective on what should be fun and fundamentally safe.

I remember Gretchen Burrett (a welcome US import to the UK aviation industry), when she was Director of Safety at UK NATS saying that they watched the dawn of sunny Bank Holiday weekends with dread because the number of controlled airspace incursions would increase massively as amateur pilots took to the air in their droves. I also recall more than one tour of the UK AAIB's facilities at Farnborough, staring in disbelief at the number of wrecked light aircraft and helicopters littering their hangars.

Flying should be available to all those capable of managing an aircraft with competence but please, let's try to make sure they have the competence and use it consistently...

PASSING OF A GIANT - CAPTAIN MICK MITCHELL

2011-06-24T14:02:00.003+01:00

You will frequently hear people say that aviation is a small world and sometimes it really does appear to be. So small in fact that there are some individuals who seem to be known by everyone.

Captain Micky Mitchell, most recently head of Global Aviation Consultants in South Africa was just such an individual and our business will be a lesser place for his passing last week. If Mick was well known globally he was truly a giant in African aviation and he touched almost every operator in the continent over the years.

Mick's legacy includes the implementation of safety management systems in a region not famous for its attention to safety, and there are few who could have achieved the same success that he did. Where safety had failed Mick was also to be found, helping airlines to manage in the aftermath of accidents.

I remember Mick as not the easiest man to do business with but it was always a pleasure and an education to share a glass or two with him at the end of the day.

AF447

2011-05-28T10:56:00.003+01:00

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/point.enquete.af447.27mai2011.en.pdf
The BEA's publication yesterday of their initial findings from the recorders of AF447 has touched off a storm of debate - I had the usual call from the 24 hour news networks for my opinion of the content. But first let's not allow this new data distract us from the reality of the human tragedy that was this accident.

I think the BEA have done the right thing in releasing the first verifiable findings; investigators are frequently criticised for holding back too long. However, this is not an excuse for us in the aviation community to leap to conclusions, and potentially to condemn the actions of the crew. In my years of flying I have deliberately taken high performance aircraft into fully developed stalls (and back out again fortunately...) but many have not, and virtually none of us will have seen a fully stalled condition in a big airliner.

What will be interesting for me will be how the latest revisions to industry training for stall recovery, delaying the application of thrust until out of the stall, stands up to the evidence of this accident.

The thoughts of Gates Aviation's team are with the victims and those they have left behind, as they belatedly learn more of the last few minutes of that flight.

RETURN OF THE VOLCANO

2011-05-23T08:49:00.002+01:00

In March last year I booked a ticket to fly from London to Washington Dulles for a meeting of the Flight Safety Foundation's international advisory committee. Within days the Icelandic volcano E15 (the letter E followed by 15 other random letters apparently), erupted spectacularly and my trip was duly cancelled along with those of thousands of other travellers.

Late last week I was back on the net to book Heathrow to Dulles for this year's meeting of the same committee, and guess what? At least Grimsvotn is slightly easier to pronounce...

Differences this year? The allowable concentrations are higher by orders of magnitude (mathematically incorrect perhaps but not hard from a starting point of zero); there is a lot more hardware available to track the location and concentration of the cloud; Europe has in place a co-ordinated disruption management process (time to see if it works); Grimsvotn's ash is coarser and heavier and should fall out of the atmosphere more quickly. But, and it is a big BUT for airlines, European Directive 261 is still in place so that unlike ferries, trains and coaches, they will still have to compensate passengers for 'force majeure' events like this one.

THE SHIPPING NEWS...

2011-05-23T08:36:00.003+01:00

A maritime story for a change - this plagiarised from the back page of Lloyds List a couple of weeks ago:

The journalist was illustrating the general ignorance of the maritime industries amongst the public (it would apply equally to aviation). He visited an apartment in Singapore, which enjoyed panoramic views of the bay where the usual fleet of large ships lay at anchor. The apartment owner joined him and remarked how the Singapore Port team were incredibly disciplined and organised. The journalist replied that it was his experience that everything in Singapore could be described that way but the man insisted the Ports people were a special case. "Every morning when I go to work the ships are all facing that way but when I come home each evening, without exception they have turned them all around to face the opposite direction".

I hope Lloyds won't mind me passing this on!

UNREASONABLE DEMANDS?

2011-05-09T09:15:00.003+01:00

http://bit.ly/mHKNBb
This link will take you to a press release from a major international airline on the subject of an industrial relations dispute it has with its licenced engineers. I have no knowledge of either side's case in the dispute, and perhaps even less interest but I had to read twice one of the demands that the union have on the table - it is beyond belief! They are asking for 'guaranteed staff travel' privileges, which would displace fare paying passengers. Staff travel never has, and never could work like this; it makes no commercial sense and staff need to recognise the commercial imperatives of their employers.

In my last airline job I well recall sitting next to the corporate president in economy, because there were no seats left in the premium classes. If economy had also been full we would both have been sitting at check-in waiting for the next flight. That is how staff travel works - be glad of the privilege...

A330 ATLANTIC CRASH: FLIGHT RECORDERS FOUND

2011-05-03T15:40:00.005+01:00

So we might finally get to learn the truth behind the tragic loss of AF447 and its passengers and crew in the Atlantic. The Bureau Enquette d'Accidents has announced that both the FDR and the CVR have now been recovered in the fourth and final search operation and, assuming they remain serviceable, they should tell us the story of the fatal last few minutes of the flight.

SAFETY AND PROFITABILITY

2011-05-03T15:33:00.002+01:00

It is always good to hear someone else singing your tune! At the Sydney branch of the Royal Aeronautical Society Mr Ron Bartsch, a well known aviation law specialist, said the following:

"...an efficient safety system can not only improve an airline’s bottom line, but can also make the airline safer".

"An efficient safety management system, then, not only protects the lives of airline passengers and crew, but also the survival of airlines themselves."

The point is, as it has always been, that safety management is not, and should not be seen as, just a tiresome expense. It is a core business process, fundamental to the success of the airline.

SOUTHWEST 737 OVERRUNS AT CHICAGO MIDWAY

2011-04-27T05:03:00.003+01:00

http://bit.ly/fCu03Z
Isn't there an element of deja vu going on here? Only 6 years ago another Southwest 737 overran at the same airfield... The picture tells that story.

Let's see what the NTSB make of this one.

MANGALORE 737 OVERRUN - AIRCRAFT COULD HAVE STOPPED

2011-04-26T11:53:00.003+01:00

http://bit.ly/fZAPWu
This news piece reports a Boeing test pilot claiming that, with max braking and full reverse the Air India Express 737 which overran the runway in Mangalore, could have stopped in the remaining runway despite having landed two thirds of the way along. He conceded that this would have required optimal performance, associated with test flight conditions. Let's hope this is seen for what it is; evidence for an investigation, rather than encouragement for pilots to continue with long landings...

OPEN TOP 737 - MANUFACTURING DEFECT?

2011-04-26T11:13:00.002+01:00

http://sns.mx/Rqd4y1
This link will take you to an article suggesting that the area of failed fuselage skin on Southwest's 737 has evidence of misaligned rivet holes from manufacture. Amazing that this has taken 15 years and almost 40,000 flight cycles to manifest itself!

SMS FOR SENIOR MANAGERS

2011-04-25T12:37:00.002+01:00

ICAO's guidance on safety management systems, as reflected in many states' own SMS regulations, requires that all staff undergo some kind of related training. However, the scope and content of training for senior managers and executives needs to be very different to that for other employment sectors within a business. At Gates Aviation we have recognised this specialist requirement and developed an SMS training package specifically for airline managers and executives, with a style and content designed to focus on the business implications of SMS. We also understand the time pressures on the management team and this course is delivered in a busy four hour session, scheduled to suit the group's commitments.

If you need to demonstrate SMS training compliance to your regulator with a proven, effective and resource efficient solution, contact Gates Aviation's safety management partner, Captain Jo Gillespie at jgillespie@gatesaviation.com or call +44 207 469 6437 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting +44 207 469 6437 end_of_the_skype_highlighting.

A380 HITS CRJ 700

2011-04-13T10:13:00.003+01:00

http://usat.ly/dZNJJP If you haven't seen it already on the international news services here is remarkable video of an Air France A380 striking the tail of a Comair CRJ with its wing as it taxied out at JFK. Some sources are playing this down, I even read the term 'fender bender' in one report, but make no mistake with that much fuel in the wing of the 380 the potential for a massive conflagration was very real.

Even more remarkable is the fact that no-one on the CRJ was hurt and I would suggest that means all passengers and crew had their seat belts done up tight. If they hadn't they would have been thrown violently around the cabin. This is a salutary lesson for anyone who thinks it is good idea to allow crew (or passengers) to walk around the cabin during taxi...

LOSS OF CONTROL

2011-04-09T09:35:00.002+01:00

The Lebanese investigators have all but confirmed that the loss of an Ethiopian 737 on departure from Beirut will be classified as LOC-I, or loss of control in flight. The similarities to the Kenyan accident out of Douala a couple of years ago are startling - night time departure with some thunderstorm activity, otherwise quite normal...

The term loss of control to me implies that there was some kind of control difficulty to overcome in the first place but that simply isn't the case with these two accidents. More appropriate names might be absence of control, or failure to control in flight. So how and why does it happen? This most recent crash was preceded by a bank angle warning and prolonged stick shaker activations both of which presumably have recoveries that the pilots will have practiced in the simulator.

To say that this is automation getting the better of us is to oversimplify the problem - proper use of the autopilot would probably have saved the aircraft in both cases. Are pilots being trained to think with the same philosophy as their aircraft does?

PROSECUTING PILOTS

2011-03-16T14:14:00.004Z

http://bit.ly/hCnDll

"Prosecutors in Russia have compiled a criminal case against the two pilots involved in the Tupolev Tu-204 approach crash in Moscow a year ago... Investigators determined that the pilots had pressed on with the approach in darkness and poor weather..."

In light of my earlier comments on the Smolensk accident it would be very interesting to learn what drove these pilots to press on with the approach to Moscow DME. There were no fatalities so it should be possible to get some definitive answers, but not if the pilots expect to be prosecuted.

TOILET OXYGEN NOT REQUIRED ON VOYAGE...

2011-03-11T05:59:00.003Z

http://on.msnbc.com/fkAnSq So the US FAA has decided that the security risk from passenger emergency oxygen systems in aircraft toilets is actually greater than the hypoxia risk for a passenger in the toilet in a rapid decompression? The FAA has directed the removal of toilet oxygen systems from 6,000 domestic aircraft... Interesting!

SMOLENSK

2011-03-11T05:56:00.002Z

http://bit.ly/fkGi9C for the Flight Safety Foundation's AeroSafety World article on the Smolensk crash. Nothing new but it reinforces my concern over the potential for VIP or commercially powerful passengers to exert undue influence on the decision making of pilots.

STAR CLASS

2011-03-04T08:49:00.005Z

For one reason and another I had to fly from Melbourne to a conference in Singapore on Wednesday. I explored all of the options for business class one-way fares (I am returning to Sydney) and it seemed quite expensive for an 8 hour trip, until I stumbled on the fact that Jetstar, Melbourne's low cost carrier, offered what it calls Star Class on A330 international sectors. With some trepidation I booked, because the ticket was just A$700, less than a third of the competition but fearing that it would be another premium economy or worse.

Check-in was easy at a dedicated desk, and the trip began well with access to the Qantas (Jetstar's owner) business lounge - always a good start. When I boarded I found good sized leather seats, which reclined enough to be comfortable for a daytime flight at least. To my surprise I was offered Champagne right away (not the best but OK) and a little wash kit awaited me on the seat, with my own little inflatable neck pillow - I haven't inflated it yet...

There were two hot meal services; economy food but with the little surprise of a separate cheese and fruit service after lunch. Drinks were plentiful and the cabin service was friendly if a little haphazard. Entertainment was provided on a small but heavy little portable player and I was a bit concerned for its potential as a projectile in turbulence (of which we had plenty).

My bag came off the belt as I got there and I was on my way to the hotel without delay. All in all money well spent! Oh, and aviation really is a small world - I knew the captain personally; thanks John.

OFF TOPIC

2011-02-19T03:23:00.003Z

Those of you who know me you won't be surprised to hear that I am having lunch at Doyles, Watsons Bay, Sydney Harbour. I've been several times before but I am a little disappointed by the industrial scale of the operation nowadays; however it is a sunny Saturday in February at one of Sydney's best known attractions. An observation on the food though: the Sydney rock oysters were very poor. I suspect they were shucked some time earlier by someone inexperienced, as they were tired and completely dry in the shell. Bear that in mind if you plan to eat here... At A$100 a head you expect the best.

IATA'S TAKE ON UK AVIATION POLICY

2011-02-15T02:19:00.001Z

This is lengthy but worth reading:

London – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on the British government to improve its global competitiveness in air transport by taking a global approach to aviation and climate change, reducing taxes, changing the economic regulatory structure for airports, and developing a proper strategy to safeguard the economic benefits of aviation.

“The UK has a great tradition of leadership in aviation. But any industry can only take so many knocks before the damage is permanent. I respect the UK for its historic role but to write a successful next chapter, we must say ’basta.’ The government’s policy pillars of excessive taxes, inefficient airport regulation and limiting growth will destroy the UK’s proud aviation legacy,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO in a speech to the Aviation Club in London.

Bisignani noted that aviation supports about 1.5 million UK jobs along with $76 billion in economic activity. “Aviation provides critical global connectivity to this island nation. It is a great mystery to me why the government seems so intent on destroying its competitiveness with a policy agenda stuck in the past,” said Bisignani. To support aviation’s economic benefits, he called for urgent policy action in the following areas:

• Cost: The World Economic Forum’s Travel and Tourism Competitiveness report ranks the UK last out of 133 countries for cost competitiveness, 129th on fuel prices, and 121st on ticket taxes and airport charges. Bisignani took aim at the UK’s “phantom regulator” as one of the causes of weak cost competitiveness. “Recent decisions have got it all wrong. While the global airline industry was cutting costs and improving efficiencies to survive, the regulator allowed BAA a 50% increase for Heathrow charges. He was even more generous for 2008-2013, with an 86% increase. The economic regulatory model for airports is broken and must be urgently fixed,” said Bisignani.

• Capacity: “With the decision to abandon plans for a third runway, London Heathrow is becoming a secondary hub,” said Bisignani. Heathrow has two runways limiting its growth compared to other major European hubs with greater runway capacity—Amsterdam has five runways while Paris, Madrid and soon Frankfurt will have four. Commenting on the ability of high-speed rail to take up the slack, Bisignani said, “If building 2,000 meters of runway takes decades, building or upgrading 650 km of rail will take several lifetimes. And it will probably take more money than the Chancellor of the Exchequer could write a check for.” Noting that the government came to power with many policy decisions in hand, he hoped that “with experience, the policies would become more realistic.”

• Selling the government’s share in UK NATS: Bisignani, who sits on the Board of UK NATS, urged the government to consider carefully the sale of its shares in UK NATS. “The corporatized NATS, with industry and government working together as shareholders, has delivered many benefits. It is more efficient, and more focused on its customers, than when it was a government-run monopoly. Efficient air traffic management contributes to the success of business connectivity. Any change to the structure of NATS must be carefully considered. A golden share or keeping some of the shares for the government is an option, and any change must include an effective regulatory structure that drives further efficiencies,” said Bisignani.

• Winter weather: Bisignani called for better preparedness for severe weather in the wake of major airport shutdowns in December. “The inconvenience to passengers and the paralysis of the UK economy for many days is unacceptable from any perspective. Shoveling snow is not the airline’s responsibility. The financial losses they suffered must be compensated, and we must approach next winter with a better plan,” said Bisignani.

• Climate change: Bisignani criticized the UK government for taking an isolated and punitive policy approach to managing aviation’s emissions, particularly with the Air Passenger Duty now standing as a GBP2.7 billion burden on the industry. “That is enough to offset all of UK emissions—not once, but four times. To borrow a UK phrase ‘this is potty’. Environment policy should not be designed around paying the bills for the government’s failure to effectively regulate the financial sector,” said Bisignani. He called for an immediate end to the unjustified burden of Air Passenger Duty and for the UK and Europe to cooperate on a global framework for economic measures coordinated through ICAO. Bisignani also called on the government to support the commercialization of biofuels, with the potential to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint by up to 80% and to stimulate the economy at the same time. “Aviation is united and committed to improving fuel efficiency by 1.5% per year to 2020, capping net emissions from 2020 through carbon-neutral growth, and cutting net emissions in half by 2050, compared to 2005 levels,” said Bisignani.

Bisignani’s calls for renewed competitiveness came as the air transport industry starts what is expected to be a second consecutive year of profitability, albeit weak, following major losses over the last decade. Following a $15.1 billion profit in 2010, IATA is predicting that global profits will shrink to $9.1 billion in 2011. “For an industry that generates nearly $600 billion in revenues the margins are pathetic. The 2.7% margin that airlines earned last year does not even cover the cost of capital which is around 7-8%. And the margin will shrink to 1.5% this year,” said Bisignani.

HYPOXIA TRAINING

2011-02-13T07:12:00.005Z

In the wake of findings from the Helios 737 crash in 2005, in which the aircraft automatic pressurisation system failed to pressurise the aircraft and everyone (including the crew) became hypoxic, Europe's EASA has announced that it will explore the potential for rule making on three issues:

* Mandating the inclusion of cabin pressure value on FDR recordings - fairly common already
* Installing crash protected image recording equipment - try getting that past the unions
* Introducing hypoxia training for all crew - now that really does make sense!

Military pilots have been undergoing decompression and hypoxia training for years, for the very good reason that it is vital aircrew quickly recognise the symptoms of hypoxia and can react rapidly to pressurisation issues. Why? Because there really isn't very long to get it right.

There are organisations out there already offering this training to civilian operators; let's not wait for the rule making, we know it makes sense.

CALLSIGN CONFUSION...

2011-02-02T21:09:00.002Z

As an ex-pilot I am familiar with the difficulty remembering the right callsign on the radio during the first few flights after you join a new airline. Slightly embarrassing but I guess we have all done it, and it is quickly forgotten. Perhaps a bit more noticeable was John Borghetti yesterday, at the announcement of Ian Thorpe's return to competitive swimming, and the sponsorship deal with Virgin Australia. Borghetti, now with V Australia but a Qantas man for many years, proudly told the waiting media that Thorpe would be winning 'many gold medals for Qantas...' http://bit.ly/eySTZp

What did he say next? 'I can't believe I just said that!' Nor can your new team John.

MAYBE WE SHOULDN'T

2011-02-01T21:28:00.003Z

At last week's JLT Dubai Aviation Insurance Forum I gave a presentation called 'Why we shouldn't fly...' A look at human performance from a layman's perspective, it was intended to highlight the weaknesses in our information processing and behavioural choices that sometimes compromise our ability to be good pilots. I wasn't (at the time) suggesting that humans should not be passengers - quite the opposite, I asserted that we were pretty good at that!

However, on Saturday and Sunday I made the almost 24 hour trip from London Heathrow to Sydney, via Singapore and I am beginning to rethink my position! By the time I got off in Sydney, it felt as though I wasn't suited to flying at all - and I was in first class... Fortunately I am here for a month so there is time to recover!

SMOLENSK ACCIDENT - MORE

2011-01-22T11:16:00.004Z

The recent release of the Russian report on the Smolensk crash, which killed many Polish politicians (including the President), and senior military officers, appears to have raised more questions than it answered. The Russians assert that the weather was well below limits and the pilots were advised to plan for another airfield. They go on to suggest that a senior military officer on board, who they indicate had been drinking, urged or even ordered the pilots to press on.

The Polish dispute much of this but you may recall at the time that I commented (both here and on Russian radio) on the potential for influential passengers to exert unreasonable pressure on pilots to continue when the conditions clearly are not suitable. Does anyone have any experience of this, or any ideas for how to deflect the will of misguided passengers?

GULF FLIGHT SAFETY COMMITTEE - A SUCCESS STORY

2011-01-16T18:44:00.004Z

Well that was good! Thank you to Sharjah Department of Civil Aviation for hosting the January meeting of the Gulf Flight Safety Committee in their auditorium at Sharjah International Airport. I arrived there fresh from Ottawa in no state to chair the meeting, and my fellow Executive Committee members did a great job while I sat on the sidelines.

The two best bits? Firstly the confidential incident review session was well subscribed and this gave us all the opportunity to learn from the experiences of our peers. Second, at last we are seeing light at the end of the funding tunnel for GFSC - in return for a little exposure on our website or at meetings, member organisations are offering all kinds of support. Add to this an offer the following day from Maximus Air Cargo to host the next meeting in Abu Dhabi on 18 May, and we are feeling pretty good.

Check out www.gfsc.aero where website manager Captain Laurie Mitchell is doing a great job posting more and more new information - don't forget to contribute! Contact me, chairman, at jgillespie@gatesaviation.com .

AIR TRANSPORT IN IRAN

2011-01-11T10:21:00.004Z

This latest fatal hull loss in Iran, a 727 at Urumiyeh, appears to have been controlled flight into terrain on approach - the number of survivors suggests low speed and relatively low rate of descent commensurate with the approach phase. The other significant factor is that this was an aging Boeing, spares for which will have been hard to come by in sanctions hit Iran. No specific indication that this was a cause but there can be little doubt that the Iranian fleet as a whole is getting old and is under supported.

Perhaps this is an opportunity. Maybe the West should condionally offer to help upgrade the Iranian civil transport fleet and its underlying infrastructure, as a life saving and commercially attractive 'carrot' to complement the 'stick' of other international sanctions. As chairman of the Gulf Flight Safety Committee (GFSC www.gfsc.aero ) I and my colleagues would be happy to assist and support any initiative of this nature. Airbus? Boeing? Embraer..?

THIS WAS IT IN YYZ

2011-01-08T16:57:00.000Z

THE COST OF AIRCRAFT GROUND DAMAGE

2011-01-08T15:46:00.006Z

http://lnkd.in/SVs3BM Ground damage like this is expensive and disruptive but all too common. What is amazing is that many, indeed perhaps most airlines don't recover a significant portion of their losses from ground damage incidents like this - I really don't know why not. At Gates Aviation we offer a 'no-win/no-fee' ground damage loss recovery service to airlines, which some of our clients have found creates a substantial compensation revenue stream. We manage the entire claim process so the additional demand on the client's resources is minimal. Our charges are a percentage of the sum recovered based upon the complexity of the claim and are only paid if we are successful. Get in touch through our website www.gatesaviation.com or call us on +44 207 469 6437.

NEW YEAR - NEW COINCIDENCE

2011-01-02T13:48:00.003Z

Welcome to 2011, and on day one 2 TU154s suffered accidents in Russia, killing 6 and injuring many more. One caught fire shortly before take-off from Surgut in Siberia (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/01/01/russia.jet.explosion/index.html?hpt=T1), while the other was making an emergency landing at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B315Z20101205), and broke up after departing the runway. Like my previous post regarding the similar accidents in Karachi, this can be nothing other than coincidence but it does raise new questions over the airworthiness of the aging Eastern built fleet.

AMELIA EARHART FOUND?

2010-12-18T09:43:00.002Z

http://www.airlineindustryreview.com/amelia-earharts-remains-found/

Fascinating - these guys think they may have found fragments of Amelia Earhart's bones and other artifacts, suggesting that she possibly survived the end of her ill-fated flight and died as a castaway. The Ric Gillespie in the article is no relation by the way...

WHAT DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...

2010-12-18T09:36:00.000Z

Our waterfront yesterday and today!

EASA/UK CAA SMS DEADLINE

2010-12-15T11:35:00.004Z

The UK CAA's Info Alert 2010/44 (http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/201044InfoAlert.pdf) highlights the likely deadline for the mandatory implementation of safety management systems: to quote "EASA SMS legislation is expected to become effective for all regulated organisations in April 2012". It also wisely encourages organisations to develop and implement their SMS early to "enable organisation [sic] to develop systems that will provide safety and business benefits once the SMS matures and become effective".

Now there may be a temptation for organisations to think that SMS is a book that lives in the safety office and gets dusted off for audits. It certainly isn't and auditors know what to look for to assure themselves that the SMS is genuine and functional. Furthermore, the CAA Alert hints at the positive business aspects of SMS, and companies which have already implemented their systems have seen significant and tangible benefits.

If you want to learn more about SMS and how it will fit into your organisation please contact us: rlindsay@gatesaviation.com or jgillespie@gatesaviation.com and we will be happy to arrange a visit.

IATA/EUROCONTROL SMS & RUNWAY EXCURSION WORKSHOP

2010-12-11T10:34:00.002Z

In spite of the weather, this workshop went ahead last week at Eurocontrol in Brussels and although I speak as one of the main presenters, I think it was at least a moderate success. The fact that most delegates were still there (and awake) at 3 o'clock on a Friday afternoon must count for something! What surpised me most was that of the 130 people there, none had previously seen the 2009 IATA Runway Excursion Risk Reduction Toolkit CD before, despite 8100 having been distributed... We are currently working on Version 2 of the Toolkit, for release next year - clearly we have to make sure that it reaches a wider audience this time.

The real success of this workshop was that it brought together operators, ANSPs (controllers), airports and regulators to discuss issues like runway condition monitoring and reporting. It became clear that there simply isn't the technology or the resource currently out there to provide pilots with the timely and accurate runway condition information they need to make sound decisions on landing performance. However, it seems that research is on-going in the US to develop automatic friction and braking performance measuring systems on board aircraft, which will at least provide real time runway condition data for following aircraft.

CRASH ON TAKE-OFF FROM KARACHI - SECOND IN WEEKS

2010-11-28T09:33:00.003Z

A Sun Way IL76 aid flight bound for Khartoum, Sudan crashed into a residential suburb of Karachi shortly after take-off early this morning. This follows the Beech 1900 that crashed earlier this month, also after take-off from Karachi. There can't be any link but there is a sad resonance.

ANOTHER EXCURSION

2010-11-27T11:32:00.003Z

Following on from the previous post I see that last evening an A320 inbound from Barcelona veered off the runway on landing at Paris Orly (http://avherald.com/h?article=433e6153&opt=0). Nosewheel in the dirt this time but mercifully no casualties once again. It is interesting that veer-off excursions are almost as common as overruns (IATA accident data 2004-2009) but ICAO have no standards for runway verges in terms of dimensions and bearing strength... do they?

RUNWAY END SAFETY AREAS

2010-11-27T11:08:00.002Z

I know I go on about runway excursions a lot, and I will be bringing it to a crescendo on 9/10 December when I run the IATA/Eurocontrol workshop in Brussels, but they make up such a large proportion of incidents and accidents that they can't be ignored. So why do some runway excursions end with a flaming wreck and others, like the 737-800 at Newcastle 2 days ago (http://avherald.com/h?article=433e06f5&opt=0), just about make the late editions as a non-event? Well leaving the runway only hurts if you hit something hard before you stop. Newcastle runway 07 has an adequate runway end safety area (RESA) and the aircraft came to an uneventful stop on it; no-one hurt, no damage...

ICAO have clear guidelines on RESAs - Annex 14 sets 90 metres as the minimum standard and recommends 240 metres. If that isn't possible then airports should give consideration to engineered materials arrestor systems (EMAS). Neither of these will stop overruns happening (that's mostly down to the pilots in the end) but they can make the difference between catastrophe and inconvenience!

DUBAI

2010-11-25T12:38:00.003Z

At very short notice I have decided to take a week of vacation in Dubai from Monday 29 November. However, if any of you are in town and want to talk business I would be happy to make time - I am there until late on 4 December. Drop me a line to jgillespie@gatesaviation.com or call +447787521550 and Skype jo.gillespie2.

747 OXYGEN CYLINDER EVENT - 2008

2010-11-22T09:20:00.003Z

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has just released its report on the 747 oxygen cylinder failure, that caused the cylinder to blast its way out of the fuselage at altitude (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2008/aair/ao-2008-053.aspx). The part critical to the investigation, the cylinder itself, could not be recovered as it was liberated over the South China Sea but as this was an isolated incident within a large and mature fleet equipped with similar parts, the conclusion was that it was a unique failure and the risk of repetition was negligible. Let's hope so!

MANGALORE REVISITED

2010-11-18T09:30:00.005Z

It is a tragedy; I recognise that but to an investigator there is a touch of the bizarre about the latest news article on the Mangalore runway overrun accident in May this year (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-11-18-airindia18_ST_N.htm) which asserts that the cockpit voice recorder included the sound of loud snoring, apparently from the captain. The report extrapolates this to imply that the captain was woken only shortly before the accident and was therefore suffering from 'sleep inertia' during the approach and landing. It was a modern aircraft and the CVR would probably have retained at least the 120 minutes preceding the accident, so it doesn't necessarily add up, (I and many other pilots have been asleep less than 2 hours before successfully landing an aircraft) but if he had been asleep for long enough to enter the deeper stages of sleep and was woken only perhaps at top of descent by a less than assertive first officer, sleep inertia is certainly a potential factor. This accident appears to be primarily about situational awareness and decision making by the captain (and secondarily assertiveness and decision making by the F/O), and sleep inertia can certainly affect those cognitive functions.

FLIGHT SAFETY & TRAINING CONFERENCE

2010-11-17T11:35:00.002Z

So it was back to the RAeS this week for the Flight Global Safety & Training conference. I was a bit surprised by the small number of airlines present but I guess cost cutting is still very much at the top of their agenda. My bit, moderating an audience participation session on integrating safety into training, seemed to go down pretty well, with some very good points raised. I threw in my favourite contentious proposal that we are currently in a 'twilight zone' between manual flight and unmanned commercial operations - always gets a reaction!

I think the most compelling issue to emerge is that we simply aren't training pilots for what they need to do in extreme situations - make good, sound decisions in the time available and act appropriately upon them. Perhaps the two most important decisions of all, and the ones that operators need to satisfy themselves their pilots will always get right, are to go-around from an unstable approach and to continue the take-off after V1. Sadly accident statistics suggest we haven't got that right yet. In normal line operations week after week, year after year, a pilot may never be faced with these critical decisions (or ones like them), so how can we be sure they are prepared?

TOMMY by Rudyard Kipling (for Remembrance Day)

2010-11-14T11:55:00.000Z

I went into a public-'ouse to get a pint o' beer,
The publican 'e up an' sez, 'We serve no erd-coats 'ere.'
The girls be'ind the bar they laughed and giggled fit to die,
I outs into the street again, an' to myself sez I:
Oh, it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' 'Tommy, go away':
But it's 'Thank you, Mister Atkins,' when the band begins to play -
The band begins to play, my boys, the band begins to play,
Oh, it's 'Thank you, Mister Atkins,' when the band begins to play.

I went into a theatre as sober as could be,
They gave a drunk civilian room, but 'adn't none for me;
They sent me to the gallery or round the music-'alls,
But when it comes to fightin', Lord! they'll shove me in the stalls!
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' 'Tommy, wait outside';
But it's 'Special train for Atkins' when the trooper's on the tide -
The troopship's on the tide, my boys, the troopship's on the tide,
Oh, it's 'Special train for Atkins' when the trooper's on the tide.

Yes, makin' mock o' uniforms that guard you while you sleep
Is cheaper than them uniforms, an' they're starvation cheap;
An' hustlin' drunken soldiers when they're goin' large a bit
Is five times better business than paradin' in full kit.
Then it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' 'Tommy, 'ow's yer soul?'
But it's 'Thin red line of 'eroes' when the drums begin to roll -
The drums begin to roll, my boys, the drums begin to roll,
Oh, it's 'Thin red line of 'eroes when the drums begin to roll.

We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too,
But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you;
An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints,
Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints;
While it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that , an' 'Tommy, fall be'ind,'
But it's 'Please to walk in front, sir,' when there's trouble in the wind -
There's trouble in the wind, my boys, there's trouble in the wind,
Oh, it's 'Please to walk in front, sir,' when there's trouble in the wind.

You talk o' better food for us, an' schools, an' fires, an' all:
We'll wait for extry rations if you treat us rational.
Don't mess about the cook-room slops, but prove it to our face
The Widow's Uniform is not the soldier-man's disgrace.
For it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' 'Chuck him out, the brute!'
But it's 'Saviour of 'is country' when the guns begin to shoot;
An' it's Tommy this, an' Tommy that, an' anything you please;
An' Tommy ain't a bloomin' fool - you bet that Tommy sees!

ROLLS ROYCE TRENT 900

2010-11-12T10:01:00.001Z

If you haven't already seen it the EASA Airworthiness Directive with regard to the Rolls Trent 900, following the uncontained failure in Singapore, is at http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/20101110EASAEAD20100236E.pdf

SOME FINANCIALS

2010-11-10T16:58:00.000Z

As if the volcanic ash conference was not enough for one day, I then went upstairs at the Society for an excellent presentation by Chris Tarry of the consultancy CTAIRA; one of the RAeS’s programme of evening briefings for their Corporate Partners. The title was a bit obscure but the content was a fascinating insight into the financial drivers of our industry and what we can expect in the coming years. It isn’t rosy... However, it isn’t all bleak either and there seems little doubt that some business sectors and some world regions are well placed to drive the industry in the next 10 – 20 years. There were some interesting comparisons between the largely international and long haul future for the Arabian Gulf’s big three, and the massive domestic market in China, fed by the country’s immense size and enormous population. It was also clear that while LCCs had enjoyed spectacular growth, mostly at the cost of legacy carriers, they were fast running out of room to expand and many were looking at modifying their business models to attract new markets. I can’t attempt to repeat Chris’s presentation here but if you get the chance to hear his wisdom I recommend you take it. Thank you for the wine and canapés at the reception afterwards by the way, whoever it was that provided them; made the train journey home more pleasant.

MORE VOLCANIC ASH

2010-11-10T16:56:00.002Z

I spent yesterday in the hallowed halls of the Royal Aeronautical Society (well the Bill Boeing Auditorium anyway) being reacquainted with my old friend, Eyjafjallajokull and her infamous outpourings of ash in April and May of this year. I was amused that while the resident volcanologist rattled off the name with practiced ease, complete with Icelandic accent, another presenter repeatedly referred to it as ‘E15’; or the letter ‘E’ followed by 15 other random letters. There were approaching 20 presentations crammed into the agenda, which was ambitious and we could easily have survived without some of them. Most of the morning was taken up by the various agencies charged with managing the situation at the time, explaining why what they did was precisely the right thing to do and how wonderfully well they all co-operated to find solutions – not the way it looked from where I was sitting...

However, the real message was in the very first presentation, given by an economist, outlining the massive financial impact of the episode, not just on the airline sector and not just in Europe. His excellent statistics analysed details like the loss of traveller spend in destination countries, as well as the increased domestic revenues from locals who stayed at home. The bottom line was simple: everyone lost and lost heavily, and this is the point. We were shown numerous proposed initiatives like satellite imaging, forward scanning by passive infrared and atmospheric sampling by UAVs but no-one could say where the money would come from. It was patently clear that governments contributed precious little last time and that they would be unlikely to stump up any more in the future. Meanwhile, industry players who had given their resources for free in April/May expressed doubt as to whether they would be able to again. Bearing in mind the losses suffered by the industry AND by worldwide GDPs as a whole, it is vital that a joint government/industry effort is focused on bringing technology into reality and organisation into readiness, otherwise E15 and her friends (is a volcano a ‘she’? I think so) will paralyse our skies once again and we will only be able to look up and wonder at the lack of ‘airplanes in the night sky’ to wish upon!

MORE LITHIUM BATTERIES

2010-11-05T14:30:00.004Z

The UK CAA has seen fit to answer my request for a definitive position on lithium batteries by producing FODCOM 30/10 http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/33/FOD201030.pdf. However, after some lengthy discussion about how we got where we are and reference to the recent 747F crash in Dubai (which was carrying a lot of these things), the conclusion they offer is that we should simply continue to comply with the ICAO Technical Instructions on carriage of lithium batteries. The logic is that they have no hard evidence that batteries shipped in accordance with the TIs have caused fires... That helps.

HOW FAR WE'VE COME!

2010-11-03T14:35:00.003Z

This came to me on twitter today (courtesy of Eurocontrol) - it is an in-flight information report to passengers on an Aer Lingus flight to Northolt in 1952. Click on it to zoom. Is this where Airshow got their idea from?

ZEIGARNIK EFFECT

2010-11-01T10:09:00.002Z

"What?" I hear you ask... For many years it has puzzled me why pilots will continue a patently unstable approach, when it is clear to them that they are in breach of corporate policy and potentially endangering their lives. I recall reading years ago a reference to the 'Zeigarnik Effect', in one of Professor Jim Reason's books I think, and I have retained a vague notion that it was related to a human desire to complete a task. However, I thought I would do a bit of research and this is what I learned.

In 2008 Baumeister & Bushman (who I am assuming know more about this than I do), defined the Zeigarnik effect as 'the tendency to experience intrusive thoughts about an objective that was once pursued and left incomplete'. This appears to imply that human nature drives us to complete a task once commenced, or we risk the mental discomfort of subconscious reminders of unfinished business - something termed 'cognitive dissonance', defined as 'an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously'.

Several experiments have been conducted (the internet has details), which support the theory of the Zeigarnik effect and it would be interesting to learn more about how this applies to the decision making process during an approach.

PEOPLE AND PLACES

2010-10-21T13:25:00.004+01:00

The last few weeks have had me criss-crossing the world, attending, facilitating and running conferences, seminars and meetings in the fields of aviation and safety. I can take or leave travel itself and if I see another hotel I shall probably run away but the real highlight to all of this has been the people I have met. Some I have known for years, people I have worked with and worked for, people who have worked for me. Others I have met for the first time and some I may never meet again.

If I have had the good fortune to be in your company in these recent weeks, I thank you for your time and your wisdom, your friendship and your humour - you all have left your mark on my rather hectic life!

I would like to ask you to consider one thing: I have come to believe that 'safety' is a destination, a 'holy grail', an impossible dream in this business we have chosen, which by its nature will never be intrinsically safe. Instead, managing risk is the never ending journey we are fated to travel for our entire careers, forever trying to make things safer but never actually able to reach the goal. If we recognise that I think we will find the journey much easier to bear.

HIGH ALTITUDE ICE CRYSTALS

2010-10-21T13:10:00.004+01:00

Heard of them? Well I hadn't until the Gulf Flight Safety Committee meeting in Doha last week, at which Bill Hunt from Boeing, (in his inimatable style) told us all about them. They are to be found in the less dense cloud formations surrounding and above cumulo-nimbus clouds - they look a bit like a wispy cap or collar on the cloud - above the altitude at which you would expect to encounter icing from super-cooled water droplets. The crystals are very small, similar to the size of bread flour, and cannot be detected by radar. Flying through them produces what appears to be rain on the windscreen but with a sound uncharacteristic to rain.

Doesn't seem too bad then. Until you hear that numerous recent engine failures have been attributed to encounters with these crystals, one involving seven consecutive failures. Apparently, concentrations of the crystals impinge upon warm sections at the front of the engine, melting and thereby cooling the structure. Once those parts of the engine have cooled below 0 degrees, the crystals begin to attach and accrete, disrupting the gas path and potentially causing stall, surge or engine failure.

The message was a simple one - don't fly over or close to CBs in cloud when at altitude. It almost certainly consists of these crystals.

LITHIUM BATTERIES

2010-10-12T12:47:00.003+01:00

Passing through Dubai on my way to the World Food Programme Global Aviation Safety Conference in Sharjah (more about that later) I read an article in the local 'free-to-air' newspaper, regarding the recent 747 freighter crash here. Maybe not the best source of reliable aviation safety intelligence but the piece heavily pushed the theory that the smoke reported by the crew prior to the accident may have emanated from lithium batteries, of which they were apparently carrying many.

The debate over the safety of lithium batteries for air carriage has gone on for a long time but had dropped of my radar of late - I think I assumed they had been shown to be safe. If there is even the remotest possibility that they will be implicated in this latest tragedy, the industry must use this as a stimulus for conclusive research to put the question to bed for ever. Either they are safe to carry on aircraft or they are not! These things are everywhere nowadays and we really do need to know.

If it wasn't batteries then what was it?

POPULAR EXCURSION

2010-09-30T12:18:00.002+01:00

I have just spent 2 days at the AAPA Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar in Manila, Philippines. There was not a lot of new stuff presented, although there were some interesting pieces on moving LOSA and FRMS into maintenance and cabin crew management. The saddest 'old news' of all was that delivered by the venerable purveyor of Flight Safety Foundation statistics (and much more besides) Jim Burin: the single biggest accident outcome is runway excursion. Technically, that is an aircraft that departs either the side or the end of a runway, meaning that it has to be on it first.

No surprises that the major contributors to excursions are unstable approach, landing long, landing fast, contaminated runways and inappropriate (late) use of retardation devices; or on take-off the seemingly obvious decision to reject above V1. We know all this; Jim and others have been telling us for some time... the evidence is out there. Why does it keep happening?

Well I don't think we have cracked two human characteristics: the desire to complete a task once commenced (the Ziegarnick effect?), and; the abhorrence of failure in front of one's peers, common amongst high achievers. These may sound esoteric and I can't tell you how to do it but we have been working on everything else for years, so why not try something new?

GEESE and GOLDEN EGGS

2010-09-09T21:10:00.003+01:00

So there's a risk we hadn't thought about. BBC Watchdog tonight (9 September) fairly conclusively proved that a UK low cost carrier has been using under size baggage gauges at the gate to extort additional hold bag fees from their passengers. I really do not understand why a sound business like theirs would do that to the fundamental source of its revenue - it makes no long term sense.

I don't have any evidence but the BBC appear to have some; they convinced me. Let's try not to harm our industry's reputation unnecessarily...

SAFETY RISK TROUBLESHOOTING

2010-09-05T15:33:00.002+01:00

This year probably won't be the worst in aviation history in terms of accidents, hull losses or fatalities but it won't be the best either. Apparently sound air carriers with hallmark certifications like IOSA and the ISO 9000 family have still lost aircraft, crew, passengers and reputations in well known and researched event modes like runway overrun and controlled flight into terrain (CFIT). It isn't because they weren't trying to be safe either; no-one plans to have an accident - it wouldn't be an accident if they did.

Sometimes though it is possible for even the very best organisations to become so involved with the business of doing business, and staying in business in these difficult times, that they miss vital signs of inherent risk in what they do or what they are planning to do. That is when an independent view, the eye of the risk 'troubleshooter', is required to take a closer look and ask the awkward questions which might reveal the business or operational threats no-one is choosing to see.

Sounds dramatic? A bit sensationalist? Try the media and market responses to an accident or even a serious incident - they have a monopoly in those adjectives. Give us a call at Gates Aviation on +44(0) 207 4696437 and we can discuss a number of options, some of which could be entirely free of cost, to help you identify, measure and manage your aviation and enterprise risk.

SMOKE IN THE COCKPIT

2010-09-05T12:15:00.002+01:00

Reports indicate that the pilots of the UPS 747-400 freighter that crashed near Dubai International on Friday reported smoke in the cockpit, prior to the accident. As evidenced by Swissair 111 in Peggy's Cove years ago, smoke and/or fire in the flight deck is one of the most difficult conditions for a pilot to manage successfully. For his own safety he will be wearing a cumbersome oxygen mask and visor, which are unfamiliar and severely restrict the ability to communicate and operate controls. Add to this the impaired visibility from the smoke and it may even be impossible to read the fire/smoke checklist, let alone the instruments. Finding oneself isolated in an opaque world of smoke and possibly fire will be disorientating and unquestionably frightening. If the fire is in the vicinity of controls or systems it may well be that their functionality is impaired or lost.

Some time ago a company marketed a transparent inflatable 'cushion', designed to provide a clear corridor between the pilot's visor and the instrument panel and windscreen. I am not sure how it sold (my company at the time didn't buy) but it would be interesting to know who did and what the in service performance was like. Also, does anyone know of any subsequent developments in technology to meet this serious safety challenge?

This latest tragedy reminds us that while we do have a good record of safety in our industry, we cannot afford to be complacent and we must address known risks rather than hope they won't manifest themselves. My sympathy goes to those who have lost people they know and love in this accident.

MISERY FOR SMALL TRAVEL FIRMS... AND THEIR CUSTOMERS

2010-08-27T16:26:00.002+01:00

The laws of unintended consequences apply in the world of travel businesses just like anywhere else it seems. The recent failures of 3 small tour operators has been big news and a huge source of hassle and heartache for thousands of holidaymakers, as well as hundreds of employees at the firms and their sub-contractors. Now it appears that big boys First Choice and Thomson are reporting a massive surge in bookings as travellers shy away from the potentially more vulnerable smaller operators. The net result - even harder times for the little guys and increased likelihood of more failures to come. No-one can blame customers for managing their risks in this way, and TUI's two subsidiaries are just doing good business, but it is an unpleasant reality that we will almost certainly see the fate of Goldtrail, Sun 4U and Kiss repeated in the coming months...

CONFERENCE SEASON!

2010-08-25T11:22:00.002+01:00

Conference season is upon us and we have not been spared - if you would like to meet I will be at the following events in the next few weeks:

2-3 September, European Corporate Aviation Summit, Linkoping, Sweden – Gates Aviation are sponsors and speakers
22-24 September, European Regions Airlines Association (ERA) General Assembly, Barcelona, Spain – Gates Aviation are exhibitors (Ron Lindsay also attending)
28-30 September, Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) Safety Conference, Manila, Philippines – humble delegate
11-12 October, World Food Programme Global Aviation Safety Conference for Humanitarian Air Activities, Sharjah, UAE – I will be assisting in managing and anchoring the conference
13 October, Gulf Flight Safety Committee Q3 meeting, Doha, Qatar – I am chairing the committee meeting, sponsored by Qatar Airways

Please let me know if you plan to be at any of these - jgillespie@gatesaviation.com

IATA SAFETY REPORT 2009

2010-08-20T15:38:00.003+01:00

The IATA Annual Safety Report for 2009, based on worldwide accident and incident data, offered some enlightening statistics as always. Firstly, runway excursion was the most frequent accident type in 2009 and it is no coincidence that IATA is revisiting its runway excursion risk reduction toolkit - I am fortunate to be contributing to that effort and will have more on the subject later. Even more striking for me was the finding that almost a quarter of accidents were attributed in part to deficient safety management, and that 86% of those implicated the regulator for deficient safety oversight. For a start I would refer to my earlier piece on the EC List of Banned Carriers, and suggest that the EC might have a point! Secondly, what does this say for the concept of safety management systems (SMS)? The whole idea of SMS is to allow operators an element of autonomy in safety management, free to some extent of prescriptive regulatory constraints, to allow them achieve the best standard in a way that suits their operation. However, if neither the operators NOR the regulators can be trusted to maintain adequate standards of operational and corporate safety, SMS is doomed to fail. We can't let this happen because it has been proven time and again that regulatory compliance does not equal a safe operation...

THREAT OF BAA STRIKE AVERTED

2010-08-17T12:34:00.002+01:00

What a difference a day makes... Congratulations to all sides in the pay dispute at BAA, for finding a solution acceptable to all, which ensures that passengers will be able to travel as planned and the industry as a whole will not suffer yet another massive and costly disruption. I don't know what the final deal was but it is the spirit of mature compromise that will see us through the recession hangover we can expect for the next 12 months.

THREATENED STRIKES AT BAA AIRPORTS

2010-08-16T11:01:00.003+01:00

So the real fallout from the recession, now alleged to be a thing of the past, is beginning to manifest itself in two ways - mounting job losses and industrial unrest. Make no mistake, these two indicators are inextricably linked. Anything that cripples the industry in the way that a closure of our major airports inevitably will, is guaranteed to savage revenues and stifle recovery, thereby precluding expansion and the creation of jobs. On the other hand, the workforces in our businesses have been told to expect higher taxes, higher prices, reduced public services and slashed social subsidies so they are understandably concerned by the implications for their standard of living. With inflation acknowledged by the Bank of England to be well in excess of the 2% target and VAT alone scheduled to increase by 2.5%, any pay rise of less than 5% will undoubtedly fail to even keep pace. I am not suggesting that businesses can afford 5% right now - they face problems of their own - but government, industry, unions and individuals have to take a step back and recognise the reality of the gun barrels we are staring down. If we fail to work together to solve differences through compromise and understanding, it will not just be BAA's passengers who lose out - we will all suffer and it is only the magnitude of the pain that is yet to be determined.

COWES WEEK

2010-08-10T14:18:00.002+01:00

If anyone wondered why there were no posts recently it is because I was racing as navigator on a Beneteau 40.7 in Cowes Week, with a crew of friends and ex-colleagues from Dubai. It was a fantastic week of sailing and we did pretty well, getting a cannon from the Royal Yacht Squadron finish twice - one of them a first. Team sponsor, Julian Jones of Drilling Systems was presented with the Bloodhound Trophy by the Royal London Yacht Club. Oh well, back to work...

CFIT

2010-07-29T09:55:00.004+01:00

Controlled Flight into Terrain

In recent years I have often been heard to say that the advent of EGPWS had heralded the beginning of the end for the tragic losses our industry suffered through CFIT accidents, and that our focus should shift to the next big threat - runway excursions. I am no longer so sure... It is of course too early to be certain but Tripoli, Smolensk and now perhaps Islamabad bear all of the trademark signs of serviceable aircraft hitting the ground in controlled flight. Don Bateman and his people at Honeywell have given us the tools to avoid these conditions so we have to start looking to ourselves, the pilots, and the training we receive, to determine why this killer has begun to rear its head again.

COMPOSITE STRUCTURES

2010-07-18T10:46:00.000+01:00

The very welcome arrival of Boeing's 787 at Farnborough today rekindles in my mind the debate about the integrity of composite structures in the wake of impact damage. There is an argument that says when a catering truck hits a metal aircraft, the dent and/or split is clear to see - it will be cut out and repaired, whereas the same impact on a composite hull may only temporarily distort the shape but leave permanent damage to the fibres and resin, which cannot easily be detected.

On the other hand I have spoken to composite specialists in several industries and they maintain that fibre composites retain many times more residual integrity following impact and rarely fail spontaneously, even if damaged. It would be interesting to hear from the experts, and those with experience in this field.

SMOLENSK ACCIDENT

2010-07-16T18:46:00.000+01:00

This afternoon I was interviewed by 'Voice of Moscow' radio with regard to the unfortunate Tu154 accident in Smolensk, which killed several of Poland's political elite. The concern appears to be that a voice other than those of the crew was to be heard on the CVR cockpit microphone shortly before the crash. If correct, this is an issue which has some significance in private transport flying as well - if your boss is on the aircraft and wants you to press on when it is clearly the wrong thing to do, how easy is it to say "No"?

I am not saying that is what happened (and it was a military aircraft in this case) but I would like to hear your opinions on the potential for private transport pilots to be put under undue pressure.

EUROPEAN COMMUNITY LIST OF BANNED CARRIERS

2010-07-07T14:59:00.000+01:00

The 'Blacklist'

The EC list of banned carriers purports to safeguard EU citizens in 2 ways – one by preventing unsafe airlines from operating in Europe, and the other by listing airlines which may not operate in Europe but which EU citizens may consider using on their travels. However, there are some anomalies. For a start there is a perception (unconfirmed) that European governments regularly charter banned airlines for logistics associated with military operations, and secondly major multi-national companies (notably resource groups) often charter such carriers to move personnel in countries outside of the EU. In the latter case tragedy struck recently when several Australian business executives were killed in a crash in Africa, in an aircraft operated by a carrier which features on the list.

The intent of the blacklist is clearly a good one but what do you think about the reality?

SINGLE ENGINE IFR PUBLIC TRANSPORT

2010-07-07T13:30:00.000+01:00

Some countries allow it - most don't. What is your opinion?

SAFELY REGULATED

2010-06-30T23:06:00.000+01:00

SAFELY REGULATED?
Why the rules alone won’t keep you safe

As aviation safety professionals is not uncommon to hear the ‘money men’, the accountants who sagely guard the purse strings of every aircraft operator, say something like, ”Safety? Surely the regulator looks after that – if we stick to the rules we must be safe...”, and on the face of it that would seem a valid assumption. The relevant section of the UK CAA for example is called the ‘Safety Regulation Group’ and Europe’s regulator is the European Aviation Safety Agency, so you might reasonably assume - even expect - that their rules were written to keep you safe, and I would never suggest that it is not their aim to regulate aviation in such a way as to achieve the highest standards of safety.

However, take a step back and consider exactly what the regulations are; look at the UK Air Navigation Order for example, on avoiding aerial collisions. One rule says:

An aircraft shall not be flown in such proximity to other aircraft as to create a danger of collision.

Whilst this makes perfect sense, and the ANO elsewhere provides useful guidance upon how to comply with the rule (ACAS, ATM etc), on its own it will not make a flight safe. Rather like telling a child to “be careful!” on a climbing frame, the instruction alone may achieve nothing – in the case of the child he must previously know what it is he should be careful of, and precisely what care to take to avoid it.

This is because regulations must by their very nature dwell at the acceptable boundaries, which define what may or may not be done. They are quite simply the minimum acceptable standard; nothing more nor less. Any given act or action either complies or it doesn’t. Like the flight envelope of an aircraft we would not expect to operate at the very limits (although in theory we could) because experience has shown us that there needs to be an adequate margin to allow for unexpected variations in aircraft behaviour, the environment and the pilots’ competence. The magnitude of that margin is almost invariably dictated by historical knowledge of previous excursions or by informed assumption using extrapolation from what is known; but there always is a margin.

So whilst the regulator has kindly drawn the framework within which we must operate to remain safe (and of course compliant), it falls to the operator to design his system to function within it in such a way as to be sure that the chances of breaching a rule, of falling below the acceptable standard, have been examined, measured and minimised. As the organisation with the most intimate knowledge and experience of the specific activity, the operator is best equipped to define the margins to be allowed in each case and to write policy and procedure in such a way to ensure they are maintained. It is not a simple case of adding a bit for luck and it will require time and resources to ensure that it is done effectively but efficiently – in other words there will be a cost attached (sorry money men).

Funnily enough this concept is also required by the regulations; it’s called SMS...